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Gold miner slides as bullion cools from record highs, dragging estimates lower with it.
Q1 EPS beat masked falling ounces sold and rising costs, not real operational strength.
Falling gold prices and downward estimate revisions point to more downside into earnings.
AngloGold Ashanti (AU - Free Report) is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) that is experiencing the flip side of the gold trade. The stock rode bullion's historic run to a 52-week high of $132 earlier this year, but shares have since slid to the $80 area.
Gold itself has cooled from January's record near $5,626 an ounce to around $4,000-$4,100 today. When the metal you dig out of the ground does the heavy lifting for your earnings, a 25%-plus pullback in that metal shows up fast in the numbers.
About the Company
AngloGold Ashanti is a global gold miner with operations across Africa, Australia and the Americas, anchored by its flagship Geita mine in Tanzania.
It's a straightforward business model: dig up gold, sell it near the spot price, and let the metal's direction drive the P&L far more than any operational lever management pulls. That's been a gift over the past two years as gold roughly tripled off its 2020 lows, but it cuts both ways when the price turns.
The Quarter Behind the Beat
AngloGold's last reported quarter looked strong on the surface, with EPS of $2.52 beating estimates by about 14%. Earnings were up 186% year-over-year, with a record $1.169 billion in free cash flow.
But revenue of $3.15 billion missed the $3.34 billion consensus. This is because gold production held roughly flat at 724,000 ounces, gold actually sold fell to 719,000 ounces from 737,000 a year earlier, partly due to the December 2025 sale of the Serra Grande mine.
Costs also crept higher, with total cash costs rising to $1,391/oz from $1,223/oz. This means the bottom-line beat leaned entirely on price, not on selling more gold or running a leaner operation. Management still funded a record $1.16/share dividend and a new $2.0 billion buyback, but this will become harder to repeat if the gold price that drove it keeps sliding.
Estimates Rolling Over
Analyst estimates have been revised lower across the board over the past 30 and 60 days.
The current-year EPS consensus has come down to $8.23 from $9.26 sixty days ago, and next year's estimate has fallen to $7.62 from $8.86 over the same stretch.
Current-quarter estimates have slipped to $2.02 from $2.16.
With that some analysts are lowering price targets, including JPMorgan which took its target to $134 from $155.
Technicals
The stock has had a big run since 2024, moving from $20 to $130, recently falling to $80. The good news is the stock has held the halfway back level at $75. The bad news is if gold falls lower, the stock could see a full 61.8% Fibonacci retrace down to the $63 area.
The moving averages will likely offer resistance above, so watch the 50-day ay $86 and the 200-day at $90 for selling.
In Summary
AngloGold Ashanti is a well-run miner in a tough spot: its entire 2026 earnings story has been a gold-price story, and that price has cooled meaningfully off its highs. With estimates trending lower across every timeframe this is a name where the risk looks tilted to the downside into upcoming earnings.
For investors who like their risk-reward balanced, the Zacks Rank #5 says look elsewhere. Those interested in a name in the metals, FancoNevada (FNV - Free Report) is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Bear of the Day: AngloGold Ashanti (AU)
Key Takeaways
AngloGold Ashanti (AU - Free Report) is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) that is experiencing the flip side of the gold trade. The stock rode bullion's historic run to a 52-week high of $132 earlier this year, but shares have since slid to the $80 area.
Gold itself has cooled from January's record near $5,626 an ounce to around $4,000-$4,100 today. When the metal you dig out of the ground does the heavy lifting for your earnings, a 25%-plus pullback in that metal shows up fast in the numbers.
About the Company
AngloGold Ashanti is a global gold miner with operations across Africa, Australia and the Americas, anchored by its flagship Geita mine in Tanzania.
It's a straightforward business model: dig up gold, sell it near the spot price, and let the metal's direction drive the P&L far more than any operational lever management pulls. That's been a gift over the past two years as gold roughly tripled off its 2020 lows, but it cuts both ways when the price turns.
The Quarter Behind the Beat
AngloGold's last reported quarter looked strong on the surface, with EPS of $2.52 beating estimates by about 14%. Earnings were up 186% year-over-year, with a record $1.169 billion in free cash flow.
But revenue of $3.15 billion missed the $3.34 billion consensus. This is because gold production held roughly flat at 724,000 ounces, gold actually sold fell to 719,000 ounces from 737,000 a year earlier, partly due to the December 2025 sale of the Serra Grande mine.
Costs also crept higher, with total cash costs rising to $1,391/oz from $1,223/oz. This means the bottom-line beat leaned entirely on price, not on selling more gold or running a leaner operation. Management still funded a record $1.16/share dividend and a new $2.0 billion buyback, but this will become harder to repeat if the gold price that drove it keeps sliding.
Estimates Rolling Over
Analyst estimates have been revised lower across the board over the past 30 and 60 days.
The current-year EPS consensus has come down to $8.23 from $9.26 sixty days ago, and next year's estimate has fallen to $7.62 from $8.86 over the same stretch.
Current-quarter estimates have slipped to $2.02 from $2.16.
With that some analysts are lowering price targets, including JPMorgan which took its target to $134 from $155.
Technicals
The stock has had a big run since 2024, moving from $20 to $130, recently falling to $80. The good news is the stock has held the halfway back level at $75. The bad news is if gold falls lower, the stock could see a full 61.8% Fibonacci retrace down to the $63 area.
The moving averages will likely offer resistance above, so watch the 50-day ay $86 and the 200-day at $90 for selling.
In Summary
AngloGold Ashanti is a well-run miner in a tough spot: its entire 2026 earnings story has been a gold-price story, and that price has cooled meaningfully off its highs. With estimates trending lower across every timeframe this is a name where the risk looks tilted to the downside into upcoming earnings.
For investors who like their risk-reward balanced, the Zacks Rank #5 says look elsewhere. Those interested in a name in the metals, FancoNevada (FNV - Free Report) is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).